Hopeboard

IntelChips for PCs & chip factories

Earns: Lost $11 billion last year
Priced for: $65 billion profit/year by 2036Its best years were $21 billion.
Risk: If profit only reaches Intel’s best year ($21 billion), you may still lose 17% of your investment.

The stock is up 144% this year
The price assumes the chip-factory business wins outside customers

Debt

Owes more than it holds in cash

Dividends

Pays no dividend

Share buybacks

Bought back 0.8% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

SpaceXRockets & Starlink satellite internet

Earns: Lost $4.8 billion on $12.5 billion of revenue in the first half of 2026
Priced for: $280 billion profit/year by 2036Apple earns $128 billion a year.
Risk: If profit reaches Apple’s level ($128 billion), you’d make 3.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Since listing in June the stock has ranged from 20% below its first price to 57% above
It now includes Musk’s AI company xAI, bought in February
The price ignores new shares it will have to issue

Cash

Holds more in cash than it owes

Dividends

Pays no dividend

CRWD

CrowdStrikeCybersecurity software

Earns: Almost nothing: $50 million last year, after paying staff $1.2 billion in shares
Priced for: $35 billion profit/year by 2036 (700x last year’s profit)
Risk: If profit only reaches the $2 billion a year it makes before paying staff in shares, you may lose 85% of your investment.

Most of what it earns goes to staff as shares, which shrinks every holder’s slice
A faulty update crashed millions of Windows computers in July 2024

Cash

Holds more in cash than it owes

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 2.9% more shares a year over the last 5 years

Palo Alto NetworksCybersecurity software

Earns: Almost nothing: $310 million last year, after paying staff $1.8 billion in shares
Priced for: $40 billion profit/year by 2036 (130x last year’s profit)
Risk: If profit only reaches the $4.6 billion a year it makes before paying staff in shares, you may lose 70% of your investment.

Most of what it earns goes to staff as shares, which shrinks every holder’s slice
Revenue grew 24% last year; the price assumes profit catches up

Cash

Holds more in cash than it owes

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 4.4% more shares a year over the last 7 years

TeslaElectric cars & batteries

priced at328 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 0.3% of its stock price a year5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 47%/year growth (47x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 86% of your investment.

The price assumes Elon Musk keeps building big new businesses
It assumes robots and robotaxis are in wide use within ten years
Profit per share has fallen since 2022, so the price rests on the new businesses

Cash

Holds 9 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 9 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 6.3% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 48%/year then, 47%/year now

No change · assumes 47%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 48%/year then, 47%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 43%/year then, 47%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: April 2024, priced for 18%/year growth

PalantirAI software for governments & companies

priced at162 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 0.6% of its stock price a year4.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 37%/year growth (23x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 72% of your investment.

Profitable only since 2023, so there’s little record to go on
Has to become one of the biggest software companies on earth

Cash

Holds 3 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 24 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

Cheaper now · assumed 39%/year then, 37%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 36%/year then, 37%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 56%/year then, 37%/year now

Cheapest since listing in 2020: June 2026, priced for 36%/year growth

AMDComputer & AI chips

priced at135 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 0.7% of its stock price a year4.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 35%/year growth (20x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 107% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 67% of your investment.

Revenue grew 40% last year, led by AI chips
The price assumes AMD keeps gaining ground on Nvidia

Cash

Holds 2 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 8 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 7.7% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 37%/year then, 35%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 34%/year then, 35%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 37%/year then, 35%/year now

No change · assumes 35%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for 14%/year growth

ShopifySoftware for running an online shop

priced at115 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 0.9% of its stock price a year4% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 32%/year growth (16x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 28% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 61% of your investment.

Revenue grew 33% last year
The price assumes profit grows into it

Cash

Holds 3 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 12 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 2.4% more shares a year over the last 6 years

No change · assumes 32%/year

Pricier now · assumed 29%/year then, 32%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 33%/year then, 32%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 29%/year then, 32%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for 5%/year growth

MerckMedicines and vaccines, including Keytruda

priced at137 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 0.7% of its stock price a year4.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 32%/year growth (16x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 14%/year, but it actually grew 8%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 8%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you may lose 66% of your investment.

Charges for buying other companies’ drug research this year cut its official profit, so its years of profit overstate how pricey it is
The price assumes new drugs replace Keytruda, its biggest cancer drug, which starts losing its main patent protection in 2028

Debt

It would take 18 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 19 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.2% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 32%/year

Pricier now · assumed 15%/year then, 32%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 2%/year then, 32%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2025, priced for 1%/year growth

ServiceNowOffice software for big companies

priced at104 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 1% of its stock price a year4% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 31%/year growth (15x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 23% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 57% of your investment.

Revenue grew 22% last year
The price assumes AI helps it rather than hurts it

Debt

It would take half a year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 15 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 2.6% more shares a year over the last 8 years

No change · assumes 31%/year

Pricier now · assumed 24%/year then, 31%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 32%/year then, 31%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2026, priced for 23%/year growth

AbbVieMedicines, including Botox

priced at81 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 1.2% of its stock price a year4% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 25%/year growth (9.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 5%/year, but it actually grew 1%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 30% of your investment.

Official profit is held down by charges for buying other drug makers’ research
The price assumes its newer drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq keep replacing Humira, which lost its US patent in 2023

Debt

It would take 9 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 8 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.4% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 0.8% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 24%/year then, 25%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 23%/year then, 25%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 30%/year then, 25%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 28%/year then, 25%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for 1%/year growth

ASMLMachines that make chips

priced at59 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 1.7% of its stock price a year3.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 23%/year growth (8x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you may lose 19% of your investment.

ASML is the only maker of the machines that print the most advanced chips
Its customers have to keep raising their factory spending

Cash

Holds 1 year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 28 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.1% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 24%/year then, 23%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 22%/year then, 23%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 24%/year then, 23%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 20%/year then, 23%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for 12%/year growth

CostcoMembers-only warehouse stores

priced at48 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.1% of its stock price a year3% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 21%/year growth (6.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 14%/year, and it grew 14%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 14%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you’d make 1.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes steady growth with no bad years
Revenue grew 10% last year

Cash

Holds 2 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 3 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 20%/year then, 21%/year now

No change · assumes 21%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: July 2017, priced for 8%/year growth

Lam ResearchMachines that make chips

priced at46 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.2% of its stock price a year3% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 20%/year growth (6x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 9%/year, but it actually grew 26%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes chip makers keep spending heavily on new factories
Its sales follow that spending, which rises and falls every few years

Cash

Holds half a year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 29 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.4% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 3.2% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 23%/year then, 20%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 21%/year then, 20%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 24%/year then, 20%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 16%/year then, 20%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: December 2018, priced for 1%/year growth

GE VernovaGas turbines, wind turbines & power grids

priced at43 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.3% of its stock price a year3% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 20%/year growth (6x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 4.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Demand for power from data centres has filled its order book
The price assumes that demand lasts for years

Cash

Holds 2 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 6 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.2% of its stock price a year as dividends

Cheaper now · assumed 21%/year then, 20%/year now

No change · assumes 20%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 22%/year then, 20%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 35%/year then, 20%/year now

Cheapest since listing in 2024: September 2026, priced for 20%/year growth

AirbnbHoliday home rentals

priced at40 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.5% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 19%/year growth (5.5x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 18% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 4%/year less than the safe US bond.

Revenue grew 14% last year
The price assumes AI assistants don’t start booking trips without Airbnb

Cash

Holds 4 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 30 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

No change · assumes 19%/year

Pricier now · assumed 18%/year then, 19%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 16%/year then, 19%/year now

Eli LillyWeight-loss and diabetes drugs

priced at42 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.4% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 19%/year growth (5.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 14%/year, but it actually grew 17%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 4%/year less than the safe US bond.

Weight-loss drugs drive the growth: revenue grew 50% last year
The price assumes rivals and cheaper versions don’t force those drug prices down fast

Debt

It would take 2 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 25 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.5% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.7% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 18%/year then, 19%/year now

No change · assumes 19%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 22%/year then, 19%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2019, priced for 5%/year growth

Applied MaterialsMachines that make chips

priced at41 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.4% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 19%/year growth (5.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 11%/year, but it actually grew 27%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 3.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes chip makers keep building new factories at today’s pace
Sales to China are a large part of its business, and US export rules limit them

Cash & debt

Cash and debt close to even

Profit on sales

Keeps 25 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.5% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 4.1% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 21%/year then, 19%/year now

No change · assumes 19%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 25%/year then, 19%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 14%/year then, 19%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: December 2018, priced for 2%/year growth

BroadcomChips for phones, networks & AI

priced at42 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.4% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 19%/year growth (5.5x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 66% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 3.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

AI chip sales more than doubled last year
A handful of large customers drive that demand
The software business adds steady profit

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 28 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.8% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 2.7% more shares a year over the last 9 years

Cheaper now · assumed 20%/year then, 19%/year now

No change · assumes 19%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 24%/year then, 19%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 28%/year then, 19%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: July 2018, priced for −2%/year growth

WalmartThe biggest US shop, in stores and online

priced at42 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.4% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 19%/year growth (5.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 5%/year, but it actually grew 4%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 4%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you may lose 31% of your investment.

Priced like a tech company, on online sales, advertising and membership fees
Revenue grew 6% last year, a fraction of the growth the price assumes

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 3 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.8% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.8% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 18%/year then, 19%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 17%/year then, 19%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 20%/year then, 19%/year now

No change · assumes 19%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: January 2017, priced for 5%/year growth

AppleiPhone, Mac & services

priced at39 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.6% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 18%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 5%/year, but it actually grew 14%/year.Analysts expect 9% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 3.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes people keep buying iPhones and stay with Apple’s services
It assumes no flat years

Cash

Holds half a year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 25 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 4.3% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 18%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 19%/year then, 18%/year now

No change · assumes 18%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: November 2016, priced for 4%/year growth

TSMCMakes Apple’s & Nvidia’s chips

priced at40 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.5% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 18%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 3%/year less than the safe US bond.

Makes almost all of the most advanced AI chips
The price assumes it keeps that lead
It assumes conflict over Taiwan doesn’t disrupt it

Cash

Holds 1 year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 42 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.8% of its stock price a year as dividends

Cheaper now · assumed 19%/year then, 18%/year now

No change · assumes 18%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2023, priced for 5%/year growth

AmazonOnline shopping & cloud computing

priced at36 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.8% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 18%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 40%/year, but it actually grew 63%/year, from almost nothing.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 3%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes AWS, its cloud business, stays the leader
It assumes the $173 billion it spent on buildings and equipment last year pays off
It pays no dividend while it keeps building

Cash & debt

Cash and debt close to even

Investments

Owns stakes in other companies, including Anthropic, worth 2 years of profit

Profit on sales

Keeps 8 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 1.3% more shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 18%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 19%/year then, 18%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 17%/year then, 18%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: April 2025, priced for 16%/year growth

Thermo FisherLab equipment & supplies

priced at37 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.7% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 18%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 15%/year, but it actually grew 14%/year.
Cushion: If the last decade’s 14%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you’d still make 1.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Sells the tools and supplies that drug makers and labs use
The price assumes growth picks up again, now the pandemic testing boom is over

Debt

It would take 6 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 15 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 0.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 18%/year

Pricier now · assumed 17%/year then, 18%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 15%/year then, 18%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 16%/year then, 18%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2021, priced for 13%/year growth

GE AerospaceJet engines

priced at38 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.6% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 18%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 10%/year, but it actually grew 5%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 3%/year less than the safe US bond.

Most of its profit comes from servicing engines already flying
The price assumes airlines keep flying more, so that servicing keeps growing

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 15 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 18%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 19%/year then, 18%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 20%/year then, 18%/year now

Texas InstrumentsBasic chips for cars & factories

priced at42 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.4% of its stock price a year2.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 17%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 10%/year, but it actually grew 9%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 9%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you’d make 2.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Makes basic chips that go into cars, factories and appliances
The price assumes its new chip factories in Texas and Utah pay off

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 32 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.1% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.3% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 18%/year then, 17%/year now

No change · assumes 17%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 20%/year then, 17%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 13%/year then, 17%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for 5%/year growth

MastercardCredit cards

priced at34 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.9% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 17%/year growth (5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 15%/year, but it actually grew 17%/year.
Cushion: If the last decade’s 17%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you’d still make 5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Spending abroad, where its fees are highest, keeps rising
The price assumes governments’ own payment systems don’t cut into its fees

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 46 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 2.3% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 16%/year then, 17%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 15%/year then, 17%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 16%/year then, 17%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 18%/year then, 17%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2026, priced for 14%/year growth

SalesforceSoftware for sales teams

priced at34 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.9% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 16%/year growth (4.5x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 1.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes AI doesn’t let customers build their own software instead
Last year’s official profit included gains on its investments, which the board leaves out

Debt

It would take 5 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 15 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.7% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 3.8% more shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 16%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 12%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: June 2026, priced for 11%/year growth

VisaCredit cards

priced at34 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.9% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 16%/year growth (4.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 17%/year, but it actually grew 16%/year.
Cushion: If the last decade’s 16%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you’d still make 4%/year more than the safe US bond.

Takes a small cut of a large share of the world’s card payments
Cash keeps giving way to cards and phones
Regulators and new payment systems are the threat to its cut

Debt

It would take half a year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 53 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.7% of its stock price a year as dividends

No change · assumes 16%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for 14%/year growth

AlphabetGoogle search & YouTube

priced at32 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.1% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 16%/year growth (4.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 16%/year, but it actually grew 22%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 1.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes Google search keeps its lead as people turn to AI chatbots
It assumes its cloud business and YouTube keep growing fast

Cash

Holds half a year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Investments

Owns stakes in other companies, including SpaceX and Anthropic, worth 2 years of profit

Profit on sales

Keeps 27 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

No change · assumes 16%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 18%/year then, 16%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 15%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: January 2023, priced for 10%/year growth

NvidiaChips that power AI

priced at31 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.2% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 16%/year growth (4.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 19%/year, but it actually grew 61%/year, ending on a boom year.Analysts expect 71% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow from this year’s level & the story fades, you may lose 41% of your investment.

The price assumes this year’s boom profit is the new normal
It assumes data-centre spending doesn’t slow and no rival catches up

Cash & debt

Cash and debt close to even

Investments

Owns stakes in other companies, including Intel and SpaceX, worth half a year of profit

Profit on sales

Keeps 53 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.2% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 0.8% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

No change · assumes 16%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 18%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 23%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: December 2018, priced for 11%/year growth

CiscoRouters & internet infrastructure

priced at35 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.9% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 16%/year growth (4.5x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 1%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes AI networking keeps its sales growing
The 2000 boom priced it so high that the stock went nowhere for well over a decade

Debt

It would take half a year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 19 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 1.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 2.4% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

No change · assumes 16%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 12%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for 2%/year growth

CaterpillarDiggers, mining trucks & engines

priced at32 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.1% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 16%/year growth (4.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 15%/year, but it actually grew 13%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 1%/year less than the safe US bond.

Its sales follow building, mining and energy spending
Data centres buying its engines and generators for power have lifted sales

Debt

It would take half a year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 15 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.8% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 2.4% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 16%/year now

No change · assumes 16%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 19%/year then, 16%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 14%/year then, 16%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for −2%/year growth

RTXJet engines & missiles

priced at34 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 2.9% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 15%/year growth (4x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 2%/year, but profit actually fell 2%/year.
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 0.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

A defect in some of its engines has cost it billions in inspections and repairs
The price assumes those costs end and defence spending stays high

Debt

It would take 4 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 6 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 1.5% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 4.4% more shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 15%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 16%/year then, 15%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 15%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 16%/year then, 15%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for 3%/year growth

LIN

LindeIndustrial gases

priced at32 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.1% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 15%/year growth (4x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make 0.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The biggest maker of industrial gases, mostly sold on long contracts that keep its profit steady
The price assumes that steadiness keeps growing

Debt

It would take 3 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 20 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 1.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 5.7% more shares a year over the last 9 years

No change · assumes 15%/year

Pricier now · assumed 14%/year then, 15%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 16%/year then, 15%/year now

No change · assumes 15%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: April 2019, priced for 5%/year growth

MicrosoftWindows, Office & Azure servers

priced at30 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.3% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 15%/year growth (4x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 12%/year, but it actually grew 21%/year.
Cushion: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d make the same as the safe US bond.

The price assumes Azure, its cloud business, and Office keep growing fast
It assumes the $116 billion it spent on buildings and equipment last year, mostly AI data centres, pays off
Profit grew this year while the stock didn’t

Cash

Holds half a year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 37 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.7% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 0.7% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 15%/year

Pricier now · assumed 14%/year then, 15%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 12%/year then, 15%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 18%/year then, 15%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for 12%/year growth

DellComputers & AI servers

priced at28 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.6% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 14%/year growth (3.5x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 4% profit growth next year.
Cushion: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d still make 0.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Companies have ordered a lot of its AI servers; the price assumes those orders turn into profit
The stock is 23% below its high in September
Memory chips have got more expensive, which cuts what it keeps from each sale

Debt

It would take 2 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 5 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.5% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.6% of its shares a year over the last 6 years

Cheaper now · assumed 18%/year then, 14%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 17%/year then, 14%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 11%/year then, 14%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for −5%/year growth

BRK.B

Berkshire HathawayBuffett’s company: buys & holds whole businesses and stocks

priced at26 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.8% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 14%/year growth (3.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 11%/year, but it actually grew 10%/year.
Cushion: If the last decade’s 10%/year growth repeats & the story fades, you’d still make 1%/year more than the safe US bond.

Profit here leaves out paper gains on its stock holdings, the way Berkshire reports it itself
Greg Abel took over from Warren Buffett at the start of 2026
A large part of its value is cash waiting for something to buy

Cash

Holds 5 years of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 11 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

No change · assumes 14%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 15%/year then, 14%/year now

No change · assumes 14%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: January 2019, priced for 3%/year growth

MetaFacebook & Instagram

priced at26 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.8% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 14%/year growth (3.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 24%/year, but it actually grew 35%/year.Analysts expect 11% profit growth next year.
Cushion: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company) & the story fades, you’d still make 1%/year more than the safe US bond.

Revenue grew 28% last year, almost all of it from ads
The price assumes ad sales keep paying for its AI spending
Mark Zuckerberg controls the company, so investors are trusting his bets

Cash & debt

Cash and debt close to even

Profit on sales

Keeps 32 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 14%/year

Pricier now · assumed 13%/year then, 14%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2022, priced for 4%/year growth

JNJ

Johnson & JohnsonMedicines and medical devices

priced at30 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.3% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 13%/year growth (3.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 9%/year, but it actually grew 7%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 7%/year growth repeats, you’d make 1.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes its medicines and devices keep growing, now it has split off its consumer brands
Lawsuits over talc have been a cost for years

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 29 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.1% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.5% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 13%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 14%/year then, 13%/year now

No change · assumes 13%/year

Pricier now · assumed 8%/year then, 13%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: June 2024, priced for 0%/year growth

KO

Coca-ColaSoft drinks

priced at30 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.3% of its stock price a year2% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 13%/year growth (3.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 10%/year, but it actually grew 4%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 4%/year growth repeats, you’d make 4%/year less than the safe US bond.

The price assumes slow, steady growth from selling drinks in almost every country
Berkshire Hathaway has been its biggest holder since 1988

Debt

It would take 2 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 24 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.2% of its stock price a year as dividends

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 12%/year then, 13%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 10%/year then, 13%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2020, priced for 6%/year growth

BlackRockThe biggest money manager

priced at28 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.6% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 13%/year growth (3.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 8%/year, but it actually grew 7%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 7%/year growth repeats, you’d make 0.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Earns a small fee on the money it manages, so its profit follows the markets
Buying private-investment firms to earn higher fees

Debt

It would take half a year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 26 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2% of its stock price a year as dividends

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 12%/year then, 13%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 11%/year then, 13%/year now

No change · assumes 13%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 14%/year then, 13%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: December 2018, priced for 2%/year growth

AmgenBiotech medicines

priced at28 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.6% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 12%/year growth (3x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 7%/year, but it actually grew 4%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 4%/year growth repeats, you’d make 3%/year less than the safe US bond.

Several of its older drugs face cheaper copies
The price assumes its obesity drug, still in testing, works out

Debt

It would take 5 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 19 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 3.4% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 12%/year

Pricier now · assumed 11%/year then, 12%/year now

No change · assumes 12%/year

Pricier now · assumed 10%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2019, priced for 3%/year growth

NetflixStreaming TV & films

priced at22 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 4.5% of its stock price a year0.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 12%/year growth (3x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 6% profit growth next year.
Cushion: If profit only grows at 10%/year (the average big US company), you’d still make 2.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

The price assumes its cheaper plan with ads keeps adding subscribers
It assumes YouTube doesn’t take more of people’s viewing time
The stock is down 25% this year, while revenue grew 16%

Debt

It would take half a year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 21 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 12%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 13%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 22%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: June 2022, priced for 9%/year growth

PM

Philip MorrisMarlboro & nicotine pouches outside the US

priced at29 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.4% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 12%/year growth (3x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 8%/year, but it actually grew 1%/year.
Risk: If the last decade’s 1%/year growth repeats, you may lose 7% of your investment.

Cigarettes outside the US, plus a growing business in heated tobacco and Zyn pouches
Much of what holders get is the dividend

Debt

It would take 4 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 22 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.9% of its stock price a year as dividends

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 12%/year

Pricier now · assumed 11%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 13%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2020, priced for 0%/year growth

UNH

UnitedHealthThe biggest US health insurer

priced at26 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 3.8% of its stock price a year1.5% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 12%/year growth (3x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 10%/year, but it actually grew 12%/year.
Cushion: If the last decade’s 12%/year growth repeats, you’d still make 5%/year more than the safe US bond.

The price assumes it can raise what it charges faster than medical costs rise
America’s biggest health insurer, and a large health-services business

Debt

It would take 3 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 4 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 0.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 11%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 14%/year then, 12%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 5%/year then, 12%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: July 2025, priced for 3%/year growth

OracleBusiness software & cloud servers

priced at23 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 4.3% of its stock price a year1% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 11%/year growth (3x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 8%/year, but it actually grew 7%/year.Analysts expect 35% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you may lose 8% of your investment.

The price assumes OpenAI, its biggest new customer, pays its bills in full
It borrowed heavily to build data centres, and that debt has to be repaid or replaced
The stock is down 33% this year while the business kept growing

Debt

It would take 5 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 22 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 1.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 3.8% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 12%/year then, 11%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 13%/year then, 11%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 12%/year then, 11%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 25%/year then, 11%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for 5%/year growth

Procter & GambleTide, Pampers & Gillette

priced at24 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 4.2% of its stock price a year1% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 10%/year growth (2.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 10%/year, but it actually grew 7%/year.
Cushion: If the last decade’s 7%/year growth repeats, you’d still make 1.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Household brands that grow slowly and steadily
The price assumes it can keep raising prices without losing shoppers to cheaper brands

Debt

It would take 2 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 18 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.7% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 10%/year

Pricier now · assumed 9%/year then, 10%/year now

No change · assumes 10%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: May 2017, priced for 5%/year growth

ExxonOil & gas

priced at23 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 4.3% of its stock price a year1% less than the safe US bond
Priced for: 10%/year growth (2.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 13%/year, but it actually grew 2%/year.Analysts expect an 8% fall in profit next year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you may lose 2% of your investment.

The price assumes oil stays near today’s $127 a barrel
Its profit rises and falls with the oil price
It pays much of what it earns out as dividends

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 10 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

No change · assumes 10%/year

Pricier now · assumed 9%/year then, 10%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 11%/year then, 10%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 5%/year then, 10%/year now

Home DepotDIY & building supplies

priced at22 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 4.5% of its stock price a year0.5% less than the safe US bond3% of it paid to you as dividends
Priced for: 9%/year growth (2.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 9%/year, but it actually grew 12%/year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 4%/year less than the safe US bond.

Its sales follow home sales and renovations, which high mortgage rates have slowed
The stock is down 8% this year

Debt

It would take 3 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 9 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 2.5% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 8%/year then, 9%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 11%/year then, 9%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for 5%/year growth

ChevronOil & gas

priced at22 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 4.5% of its stock price a year0.5% less than the safe US bond3.1% of it paid to you as dividends
Priced for: 9%/year growth (2.5x today’s profit by 2036)More than the 2%/year of the last decade.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 4%/year less than the safe US bond.

Its profit rises and falls with the oil price, which is high today
Investors expect profit to fall when oil does

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 9 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 3.1% of its stock price a year as dividends

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 8%/year then, 9%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 12%/year then, 9%/year now

Pricier now · assumed 6%/year then, 9%/year now

UberRides & food delivery

priced at15 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 6.7% of its stock price a year1.5% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 8%/year growth (2x today’s profit by 2036) Analysts expect 43% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 3.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Investors fear robotaxis will cut out the drivers it connects riders to
Its profit has only recently turned steady

Debt

It would take 1 year of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 14 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

New shares

Issued 3.9% more shares a year over the last 5 years

No change · assumes 8%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 10%/year then, 8%/year now

Cheapest since listing in 2019: December 2025, priced for 4%/year growth

AdobePhotoshop & PDF software

priced at14 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 7.1% of its stock price a year2% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 7%/year growth (2x today’s profit by 2036)Less than the 33%/year of the last decade.Analysts expect 13% profit growth next year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 2.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

The stock is down 30% this year on fears that AI makes creative tools cheap
The price assumes AI tools don’t take its customers

Cash & debt

Cash and debt close to even

Profit on sales

Keeps 28 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays no dividend

Share buybacks

Bought back 1.7% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 7%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 12%/year then, 7%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: June 2026, priced for 6%/year growth

T-MobileMobile phone plans

priced at17 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 5.9% of its stock price a year1% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 7%/year growth (2x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 18%/year, but it actually grew 37%/year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 2%/year less than the safe US bond.

Its fast growth came from buying Sprint in 2020, which won’t repeat
The price assumes it keeps winning customers from Verizon and AT&T

Debt

It would take 8 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 12 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 2.6% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 3.2% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 6%/year then, 7%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 8%/year then, 7%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 10%/year then, 7%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: December 2018, priced for 5%/year growth

JPMorgan ChaseAmerica’s biggest bank

priced at15 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 6.7% of its stock price a year1.5% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 6%/year growth (2x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 2%/year, but it actually grew 14%/year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 1.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Investors expect profit to fall when interest rates come down
The biggest US bank, and the one that came through 2008 in the best shape

Dividends

Pays out 1.8% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 3% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed 5%/year then, 6%/year now

No change · assumes 6%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 7%/year then, 6%/year now

No change · assumes 6%/year

Cheapest in the last decade: April 2020, priced for −2%/year growth

MS

Morgan StanleyLooks after wealthy people’s money

priced at15 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 6.7% of its stock price a year1.5% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 6%/year growth (2x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 6%/year, but it actually grew 15%/year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 1%/year less than the safe US bond.

Most of its profit now comes from managing people’s money, which is steadier than trading
Its profit falls when markets go quiet

Dividends

Pays out 2.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 2% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 6%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 9%/year then, 6%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 7%/year then, 6%/year now

MicronMemory chips for computers & phones

priced at12 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 8.3% of its stock price a year3% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 6%/year growth (2x today’s profit by 2036)
Risk: If profit falls back to last year’s level, you may lose 85% of your investment.

This year’s profit is a memory-chip boom profit
Micron lost money as recently as 2023

Cash

Holds 1 year of profit in cash, beyond its debt

Profit on sales

Keeps 48 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 0.1% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 1% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 7%/year then, 6%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 12%/year then, 6%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 10%/year then, 6%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 14%/year then, 6%/year now

Goldman SachsAdvises on big deals & trades shares

priced at14 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 7.1% of its stock price a year2% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 5%/year growth (1.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 7%/year, but it actually grew 10%/year.
Risk: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d make 0.5%/year less than the safe US bond.

Profit rises and falls with deal-making and trading
Its profit falls when markets go quiet

Dividends

Pays out 2% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 3.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 5%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 6%/year then, 5%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 9%/year then, 5%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 8%/year then, 5%/year now

CitigroupBank for big companies worldwide

priced at13 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 7.7% of its stock price a year2.5% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 4%/year growth (1.5x today’s profit by 2036)10 years ago the price assumed 3%/year, but it actually grew 4%/year.
Cushion: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d still make 0.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

In the middle of a long overhaul, selling businesses abroad
The price assumes the overhaul finally lifts profit

Dividends

Pays out 2% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 4.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 5%/year then, 4%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 7%/year then, 4%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 5%/year then, 4%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: April 2020, priced for −8%/year growth

Wells FargoEveryday banking & home loans

priced at12 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 8.3% of its stock price a year3% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 3%/year growth10 years ago the price assumed 1%/year, but it actually grew 3%/year.
Cushion: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d still make 1.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Regulators lifted the cap on its size in 2025, years after the fake-accounts scandal
The price assumes it can grow again now the cap is gone

Dividends

Pays out 2.2% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 4.6% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

No change · assumes 3%/year

Cheaper now · assumed 4%/year then, 3%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 5%/year then, 3%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for −8%/year growth

Bank of AmericaBanking for US households

priced at12 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 8.3% of its stock price a year3% more than the safe US bond
Priced for: 3%/year growth10 years ago the price assumed 5%/year, but it actually grew 15%/year.
Cushion: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d still make 1.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Investors worry some of its loans go bad
It still holds bonds bought when rates were low, which pay little

Dividends

Pays out 2.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Share buybacks

Bought back 3.7% of its shares a year over the last 10 years

Cheaper now · assumed 4%/year then, 3%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 6%/year then, 3%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: March 2020, priced for −3%/year growth

VerizonMobile phone & home internet

priced at12 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 8.3% of its stock price a year3% more than the safe US bond6.3% of it paid to you as dividends
Priced for: −1%/year growth10 years ago the price assumed 3%/year, but profit actually stayed roughly the same.
Cushion: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d still make 5.5%/year more than the safe US bond.

Its profit has barely changed in ten years, so buyers pay little for growth
Investors worry that cable companies and T-Mobile will keep taking its phone customers
It carries a large debt, which has to keep being paid before anything else

Debt

It would take 10 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 12 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 6.3% of its stock price a year as dividends

Shares

Kept the same number of shares over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed −3%/year then, −1%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 1%/year then, −1%/year now

Pricier now · assumed −2%/year then, −1%/year now

Pricier now · assumed −3%/year then, −1%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: October 2023, priced for −9%/year growth

AT&TPhone plans & fibre internet

priced at10 yearsof last year’s profit

Earns: 10% of its stock price a year5% more than the safe US bond4.7% of it paid to you as dividends
Priced for: −1%/year growth10 years ago the price assumed 3%/year, but it actually grew 1%/year.
Cushion: If profit doesn’t grow, you’d still make 6%/year more than the safe US bond.

Profit jumped in the last year; if that was a one-off, the price is less cheap than it looks
Most of what you get is the dividend
Fibre to homes is its bet for growth

Debt

It would take 8 years of profit to pay off its debt, after using its cash

Profit on sales

Keeps 12 cents of every dollar of sales as profit

Dividends

Pays out 4.7% of its stock price a year as dividends

New shares

Issued 2.4% more shares a year over the last 10 years

Pricier now · assumed −3%/year then, −1%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 0%/year then, −1%/year now

Pricier now · assumed −2%/year then, −1%/year now

Cheaper now · assumed 4%/year then, −1%/year now

Cheapest in the last decade: December 2018, priced for −10%/year growth

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Cash & debt

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